Caution: Objects May Appear Closer Than They Are

In 1948, public opinion polls predicted Republican challenger Thomas Dewey would defeat incumbent President Harry Truman in a landslide. Pollsters stopped their research two weeks prior to the election believing President Truman would not win the election.

Pollsters failed to record the shift in opinion polls in the last two weeks of the 1948 presidential campaign. President Truman defied expectations. He won an improbable victory. Will history repeat itself in 2008?

Most opinion polls indicate Senator Obama will win the presidential campaign. But opinion polls are not an exact science.

Even exit polls are unreliable. Six percent of early voters in Ohio told pollsters they did not know whom they voted for.

Opinion polls are random samples of a representative population. Information gathered from polls is used to project results.

For example, Senator Obama leads Senator McCain in Iowa 53% to 41%. This does not mean Senator Obama will get 53% of the total votes in Iowa.

Opinion polls may not reflect the true nature of the voting public. An African American is the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party. Polls may not reflect racist tendencies of voters.

Every poll has a margin of error. The average voter will ignore the margin of error while studying opinion polls.

Using the Iowa example. Suppose the margin of error is 3.5%. If you adjust the polls to reflect the margin of error, then Senator Obama may lead Senator McCain 49.5% to 44.5%. An original twelve point lead is reduced to five points.

Furthermore, the average voter ignores the number of undecided voters in an opinion poll. Undecided voters have to make up there minds sooner or later.

In Iowa, 7% of the voters are undecided. Suppose 7 out of 10 undecided voters decide in favor of Senator McCain. Senator Obama could win the state 51% to 49%. An original 12 point margin is reduced to 2 points.

Senator McCain could win the election if you adjust the polls to reflect the margin of error, and adjust the number of undecided voters.

Senator Obama is leading in the following states: New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada.

Except for Pennsylvania, every state has consistently voted for the Republican candidate.

Virginia has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1968.

North Carolina and Colorado voted once for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1968.

Florida voted twice for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1968.

I applied the following formula to opinion polls cited at www.fivethirtyeight.com.

I subtracted 3.5% margin of error from Senator Obama’s lead, then added 3.5% to Senator McCain’s total.

I added 70% of the undecided voters to Senator McCain’s total, and added 30% to Senator Obama’s total.

The 70% figure will include people who will not vote for Senator Obama because he is black.

Furthermore, undecided voters tend to vote based on name recognition. Undecided voters will feel more comfortable voting for Senator McCain because he is more familiar.

In addition, Senator Obama has been running for president since February 2007. He has a huge financial advantage over Senator McCain. Mr. Obama has used millions of dollars in advertising. It is unlikely the majority of undecided voters will decide to vote for Senator Obama at the last minute.

I decided not to assign a percentage to the number of voters who will not vote for Senator Obama because he is black. It is impossible to know how many Americans will use race as a factor in their decision. Assigning a percentage would be arbitrary. It could not be supported by factual evidence.

Also, I will not use the Bradley Effect in these calculations. The Bradley Effect is named after Mayor Tom Bradley, an African American candidate for governor of California. He lost the gubernatorial race even though most opinion polls and exit polls predicted victory for the Democratic candidate.

Assigning a percentage to the number of voters who theoretically lied to pollsters could not be supported by evidence.

In New Hampshire, Senator Obama leads Senator McCain 53% to 40%. Seven percent are undecided. After adjusting the poll to reflect the margin of error and undecided voters, Senator Obama continues to lead Senator McCain 51.6% to 48.4%.

In Pennsylvania, Senator Obama leads 52% to 42%. Six percent are undecided. After the adjustment, Mr. Obama continues to lead 50.3% to 49.7%.

In Virginia, Senator Obama leads 51% to 44%. Five percent are undecided. After the adjustment, Senator McCain leads Mr. Obama 51% to 49%.

In North Carolina, Senator Obama leads 48% to 46%. Six percent are undecided. After the adjustment, Senator McCain leads 53.7% to 46.3%.

In Florida, Senator Obama leads 48% to 45%. Seven percent are undecided. After the adjustment, Senator McCain leads 53.4% to 46.6%.

In Ohio, Senator Obama leads 50% to 44%. Six percent are undecided. After the adjustment, Senator McCain leads 51.7% to 48.3%.

In Iowa, Senator Obama leads 53% to 41%. Seven percent are undecided. After the adjustment, Senator Obama continues to lead 51.6% to 49.4%.

In Colorado, Senator Obama leads 51% to 44%. Five percent are undecided. After the adjustment, McCain leads 51% to 49%.

In New Mexico, Obama leads 54% to 44%. Two percent are undecided. After the adjustment, Obama continues to lead 51.1% to 48.9%.

In Nevada, Obama leads 50% to 43%. Seven percent are undecided. After the adjustment, McCain leads 51.4% to 48.6%.

Senator Obama loses the lead in 6 states using these calculations. Furthermore, Mr. Obama’s margin for victory in four projected states is reduced.

If Senator Obama loses 6 out these 10 states, then he could lose the election to Senator McCain. Based on the adjusted calculations, the Electoral College projection could be 274 for Senator McCain and 264 for Senator Obama.

These projections do not take into account the thousands of voters who will be purged, or provisional ballots not counted, or tabulation errors.

Most voters who are purged from the rolls tend to vote for the Democratic candidate.

In 2004, about one million provisional ballots were discarded and never counted. “In 2004, 1,389,231 ballots were never counted.”[i]

Senator Obama’s supporters can be optimistic, but the last two presidential elections have demonstrated elections are very unpredictable.

Senator Obama, an African American presidential candidate, is depending on historically Republican leaning states to provide the margin of victory in the presidential election.

If I had to guess on the outcome of the election, based on the adjusted opinion polls, then I would reluctantly predict Senator McCain will be the next president of the United States.


[i] Greg Palst and Robert Kennedy Jr., “Steal Back Your Vote,” The Nation, October 27, 2008.